Ukuhlanganiswa kwe-Ice e-Arctic Ocean kuwele ezingeni lesibili eliphansi ngoba okubukwayo kwe-satellite kwaqala ngo-1979, ososayensi bakahulumeni baseMelika basho ngoMsombuluko.
Kuze kube yile nyanga, kanye kuphela eminyakeni engama-42 edlule inekhanda lomhlaba leqhwa limboze amakhilomitha-skwele ayizigidi eziyi-4 (amamayela wesikwele esingu-1.5).
I-Arctic ingathola ihlobo layo lokuqala elingenazo izimbotshana ekuqaleni kuka-2035, abacwaningi babike ngenyanga edlule ku-Journal Climate Change.
Kepha konke lokho ukuncibilika kweqhwa neqhwa akukhulisi ngokuqondile amazinga olwandle, njengokuncibilika amazinga eqhwa akuchithi ingilazi yamanzi, ecela umbuzo onzima: Ngubani onendaba?
Kuyavunywa, lezi yizindaba ezimbi zamabhele ezikhala, okuthi, ngokokutadisha kwakamuva, sezisendleleni yokuqothulwa.
Yebo, lokhu ngokuqinisekile kusho ukuguqulwa okukhulu kwemvelo yasolwandle yasesifunda, kusuka ku-phytoplankton kuya emikhondweni.
Njengoba kuvela, kunezizathu eziningana zokukhathazeka ngemiphumela emibi yokuncipha kwe-arctic sea ice.
Mhlawumbe umbono obaluleke kakhulu, ososayensi bathi, ukuncipha kwamashidi eqhwa akusikho kuphela uphawu lokufudumala komhlaba, kepha amandla okushayela ngemuva kwalo.
"Ukususwa kweqhwa lasolwandle kudalula ulwandle olumnyama, oludala indlela enamandla yempendulo," i-geophysicicistr Marco Tedesco yaseColumbia University's Earth Institute Itshelwe i-AFP.
Kepha lapho indawo esibukweni yathathelwa indawo ngamanzi amnyama aluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka, cishe amaphesenti afanayo namandla okushisa komhlaba amunwa.
Asikhulumi ngendawo yesitembu lapha: Umehluko phakathi kwesilinganiso seqhwa eliphakathi kusuka ku-1979 kuya ku-1990 kanti iphuzu eliphansi liqoshwe namuhla lingamakhilomitha-skwele angaphezu kwezigidi ezimbili - kabili le-France, eSpain ehlanganisiwe.
Izilwandle sezivele zithola amaphesenti angama-90 okushisa ngokweqile akhiqizwa amagesi abamba ukushisa ama-anthropogenic, kepha lokhu kuza ngezindleko, kufaka phakathi izinguquko zamakhemikhali, ama-curwave ama-coral ama-coral afayo.
Uhlelo lwesimo sezulu oluyinkimbinkimbi lomhlaba lubandakanya ama-Currents Ocean axhumekile aqhutshwa yimimoya, amagagasi, kanye nokubizwa okubizwa ngokuthi ukusakazwa kwe-thermohaline, ngokwawo okuqhutshwa izinguquko ekushiseni ("ukufudumala") kanye nohlu lwamasawoti ("Brine").
Ngisho nezinguquko ezincane ekhasini le-Ocean Converor (elihamba phakathi kwezigxobo futhi ligasele kuwo wonke ama-Oceans amathathu) lingaba nemiphumela emibi esimweni sezulu.
Isibonelo, cishe iminyaka eyi-13,000 edlule, njengoba uMhlaba uguqukela eminyakeni yobudala eqhweni evumela izinhlobo zethu ukuthi zikhule, amazinga okushisa omhlaba wonke alahle ama-degrees ambalwa ngokuzumayo.
Ubufakazi be-Geological buveza ukuthi ukuncipha kokusakazwa kwe-thermohaline okubangelwa ukugcwala okukhulu nokusheshayo kwamanzi ahlanzekile amhlophe aqhamuka e-Arctic ngokwengxenye okufanele asolwe.
"Amanzi amasha ukusuka olwandle oluncibilikile kanye neqhwa lomhlabathi eluhlaza okotshani kuphazamise futhi kwenze buthaka ukusakaza i-gulf," ingxenye yebhande lokuhambisa eligeleza olwandle lwase-Atlantic waseBelge eBelge eBelge eBelge.
"Yingakho iNtshonalanga Yurophu inesimo sezulu esiseNyakatho Melika ngasikhathi sinye."
Ishidi elikhulu le-Ice ezweni eGreenland lalahlekelwa amathani angaphezu kwezigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-500 wamanzi ahlanzekile ngonyaka owedlule, konke okwakungena olwandle.
Inani leRekhodi lingenxa yokushisa okukhuphukayo, okukhuphuka ngesilinganiso esiphindwe kabili e-Arctic kunawo wonke umhlaba.
"Ucwaningo oluningana lukhombisile ukuthi ukwanda kwehlobo le-arctic ukuphakama ngenxa yobuncane beqhwa lasolwandle," kusho uFettwiss etshela abe-AFP.
Ngokusho kocwaningo olushicilelwe ephephabhukwini lwe-Journal ngoJulayi, i-trajectory yamanje yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu kanye nokuqala kwephaneli ye-Ice-free, njengoba kuchazwe amakhilomitha we-UN ayisikwele ngaphansi kwezigidi eziyisithupha. Ekupheleni kwaleli khulu leminyaka, amabhere azobulawa yindlala.
"Ukushisa komhlaba okubangelwa ngumuntu kusho amabhere ama-polar aneqhwa lasolwandle asolwandle futhi angaphansi ehlobo," umbhali ohola phambili uStephen Armstrup, usosayensi omkhulu ePolar Bears International, etshela abe-AFP.