USolwazi Tiffany Shaw, uProfesa, uMnyango Wezesayensi Yezwe, eNyuvesi yaseChicago
I-Southern Hemisphere iyindawo eneziyaluyalu kakhulu.Imimoya emazingeni ahlukene ichazwe ngokuthi “amadigri angamashumi amane”, “amadigri angamashumi amahlanu anolaka”, kanye “nokuklabalasa ngamadigri angamashumi ayisithupha”.Amagagasi afinyelela ukuphakama okungamamitha angama-78 (amamitha angama-24).
Njengoba sonke sazi, akukho lutho olusenyakatho nenkabazwe olungafanelana neziphepho ezinamandla, umoya namagagasi aseningizimu nenkabazwe.Kungani?
Ocwaningweni olusha olushicilelwe ku-Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, mina nozakwethu sithola ukuthi kungani iziphepho zivame kakhulu eningizimu nenkabazwe kunasenyakatho.
Ukuhlanganisa imigqa eminingana yobufakazi obuvela kokubhekwayo, inkolelo-mbono, kanye nezibonelo zesimo sezulu, imiphumela yethu ikhomba indima eyinhloko “yamabhande ahambayo” olwandle lomhlaba wonke nezintaba ezinkulu enyakatho nenkabazwe.
Siphinde sibonisa ukuthi ngokuhamba kwesikhathi iziphepho eziseningizimu nenkabazwe zaba namandla kakhulu, kanti lezo ezisenyakatho nenkabazwe azizange zibe namandla kakhulu.Lokhu kuhambisana nokumodela kwesimo sezulu sokufudumala komhlaba.
Lezi zinguquko zibalulekile ngoba siyazi ukuthi iziphepho ezinamandla zingaholela emithelela emibi kakhulu efana nemimoya enamandla, amazinga okushisa nemvula.
Isikhathi eside, ukubhekwa okuningi kwesimo sezulu eMhlabeni kwenziwa emhlabeni.Lokhu kwanikeza ososayensi isithombe esicacile sesiphepho esisenyakatho nenkabazwe.Nokho, eNingizimu Nenkabazwe, ehlanganisa cishe amaphesenti angu-20 ezwe, asizange sithole isithombe esicacile seziphepho kwaze kwaba yilapho sekutholakala ukuhlola ngesathelayithi ngasekupheleni kwawo-1970.
Kusukela emashumini eminyaka okubuka kusukela ekuqaleni kwenkathi yesathelayithi, siyazi ukuthi iziphepho ezisezindaweni eziseningizimu zinamandla cishe ngamaphesenti angu-24 kunalezo ezisenyakatho nenkabazwe.
Lokhu kuboniswa kumephu engezansi, ebonisa isilinganiso esijwayelekile saminyaka yonke samandla esiphepho se-Southern Hemisphere (phezulu), I-Northern Hemisphere (maphakathi) kanye nomehluko phakathi kwakho (phansi) kusuka ngo-1980 kuya ku-2018. (Qaphela ukuthi i-South Pole iku- phezulu kokuqhathanisa phakathi kwemephu yokuqala neyokugcina.)
Imephu ibonisa ukushuba okuphezulu okuqhubekayo kweziphepho e-Southern Ocean e-Southern Hemisphere kanye nokugxila kwazo olwandle lwe-Pacific kanye ne-Atlantic Ocean (enomthunzi ngowolintshi) eNyakatho Nenkabazwe.Imephu yomehluko ibonisa ukuthi iziphepho zinamandla eNingizimu Nenkabazwe kunaseNyakatho Nenkabazwe (i-orange shading) ezindaweni eziningi.
Nakuba kunemibono eminingi ehlukene, akekho onikeza incazelo ecacile yomehluko weziphepho phakathi kwama-hemispheres amabili.
Ukuthola izizathu kubonakala kuwumsebenzi onzima.Ungasiqonda kanjani isimiso esiyinkimbinkimbi kangaka esihlanganisa izinkulungwane zamakhilomitha njengomkhathi?Asikwazi ukubeka Umhlaba embizeni futhi siwufunde.Nokho, yilokhu kanye ososayensi abafunda i-physics yesimo sezulu abakwenzayo.Sisebenzisa imithetho ye-physics futhi siyisebenzisela ukuqonda umkhathi womhlaba nesimo sezulu.
Isibonelo esidume kakhulu sale ndlela umsebenzi wokuphayona kaDkt. Shuro Manabe, owathola uMklomelo KaNobel we-Physics wezi-2021 “ngenxa yokubikezela kwakhe okuthembekile kokufudumala kwembulunga yonke.”Izibikezelo zayo zisekelwe kumamodeli aphathekayo wesimo sezulu soMhlaba, kusukela kumamodeli alula okushisa anohlangothi olulodwa kuya kumamodeli anezinhlangothi ezintathu ezigcwele.Icwaninga ukusabela kwesimo sezulu emazingeni akhuphukayo e-carbon dioxide emkhathini ngamamodeli ezinto ezihlukahlukene eziyinkimbinkimbi futhi iqaphe amasignali avelayo avela ezimeni ezibonakalayo ezingaphansi.
Ukuze siqonde iziphepho ezengeziwe eNingizimu Nenkabazwe, siqoqe imigqa eminingana yobufakazi, okuhlanganisa idatha evela kumamodeli wesimo sezulu asekelwe ku-physics.Esinyathelweni sokuqala, sifunda okubonwayo mayelana nokuthi amandla asatshalaliswa kanjani emhlabeni wonke.
Njengoba uMhlaba uyindilinga, ubuso bawo buthola imisebe yelanga ngokungalingani eLangeni.Amandla amaningi atholwa futhi amuncwa enkabazwe, lapho imisebe yelanga ishaya khona ngokuqondile.Ngokuphambene, izigxobo ezishaywa ukukhanya kuma-engeli aphakeme zithola amandla amancane.
Amashumi eminyaka ocwaningo abonise ukuthi amandla esiphepho avela kulo mehluko wamandla.Empeleni, baguqula amandla "amile" agcinwe kulo mehluko abe amandla okunyakaza "we-kinetic".Lolu shintsho lwenzeka ngenqubo eyaziwa ngokuthi "ukungazinzi kwe-baroclinic".
Lo mbono usikisela ukuthi ukukhanya kwelanga okwenzekayo akukwazi ukuchaza inani elikhulu leziphepho eNingizimu Nenkabazwe, njengoba womabili ama-hemisphere athola ukukhanya kwelanga okufanayo.Esikhundleni salokho, ukuhlaziya kwethu kokuqaphela kuphakamisa ukuthi umehluko wokushuba kwesiphepho phakathi kweningizimu nasenyakatho ungaba ngenxa yezinto ezimbili ezihlukene.
Okokuqala, ukuthuthwa kwamandla olwandle, okuvame ukubizwa ngokuthi “ibhande lokuthutha.”Amanzi ashona eduze neNorth Pole, ageleza phansi olwandle, akhuphuke azungeze i-Antarctica, futhi ageleze abuyele enyakatho eduze nenkabazwe, ephethe amandla ngawo.Umphumela uwukudluliswa kwamandla ukusuka e-Antarctica kuya eNyakatho yePole.Lokhu kudala umehluko omkhulu wamandla phakathi kwenkabazwe nezigxobo eziseNingizimu Nenkabazwe kunaseNyakatho Nenkabazwe, okuholela eziphephweni ezinzima kakhulu eNingizimu Nenkabazwe.
Isici sesibili izintaba ezinkulu ezisenyakatho nenkabazwe, okuthi, njengoba incwadi kaManabe yangaphambili yasikisela, ezidambisa iziphepho.Imisinga yomoya phezu kwezintaba ezinkulu idala ukuphakama okungaguquki nokwehla okunciphisa inani lamandla atholakalayo eziphepho.
Kodwa-ke, ukuhlaziya idatha ebhekiwe kukodwa akukwazi ukuqinisekisa lezi zimbangela, ngoba izici eziningi kakhulu ziyasebenza futhi ziyasebenzisana ngesikhathi esisodwa.Futhi, asikwazi ukukhipha izimbangela ezingazodwana ukuhlola ukubaluleka kwazo.
Ukuze senze lokhu, sidinga ukusebenzisa izibonelo zesimo sezulu ukuze sifunde ukuthi iziphepho zishintsha kanjani lapho kususwa izici ezihlukahlukene.
Lapho silungisa izintaba zomhlaba ngokulingisa, umehluko wokushuba kwesiphepho phakathi kwama-hemispheres wancipha.Lapho sisusa ibhande lolwandle, enye ingxenye yomehluko wesiphepho yayingasekho.Ngakho, ngokokuqala ngqá, sembula incazelo ebambekayo yeziphepho engxenyeni eseningizimu yezwe.
Njengoba izivunguvungu zihlotshaniswa nemithelela emibi yomphakathi efana nemimoya enamandla, amazinga okushisa nemvula, umbuzo obalulekile okufanele siwuphendule ukuthi ingabe iziphepho ezizayo zizoba namandla noma zibe buthaka.
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Ithuluzi elibalulekile ekulungiseleleni imiphakathi ukuthi ibhekane nemiphumela yokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu ukuhlinzekwa kwezibikezelo ezisekelwe emifanekisweni yesimo sezulu.Ucwaningo olusha luphakamisa ukuthi iziphepho ezimaphakathi ne-southern hemisphere zizoba namandla kakhulu ngasekupheleni kwekhulunyaka.
Ngokuphambene nalokho, izinguquko esilinganisweni saminyaka yonke samandla eziphepho eNyakatho Nenkabazwe zibikezelwa ukuthi zizolinganisela.Lokhu ngokwengxenye kungenxa yokuncintisana kwemiphumela yesizini phakathi kokufudumala ezindaweni ezishisayo, okwenza iziphepho zibe namandla, nokufudumala okusheshayo e-Arctic, okuzenza zibe buthaka.
Nokho, isimo sezulu lapha namanje siyashintsha.Uma sibheka izinguquko emashumini ambalwa eminyaka adlule, sithola ukuthi izivunguvungu ezimaphakathi ziye zaba namandla kakhulu phakathi nonyaka eningizimu yezwe, kuyilapho izinguquko enyakatho nenkabazwe bezingenandaba, zihambisana nezibikezelo zemodeli yesimo sezulu phakathi nesikhathi esifanayo. .
Nakuba amamodeli ebukela phansi isiginali, abonisa izinguquko ezenzekayo ngenxa yezizathu ezifanayo zomzimba.Okungukuthi, izinguquko olwandle zandisa iziphepho ngenxa yokuthi amanzi afudumele aya ngasenkabazwe futhi amanzi abandayo alethwa endaweni ezungeze i-Antarctica ukuze athathe indawo yawo, okuholela ekwehlukeni okunamandla phakathi kwenkabazwe nezigxobo.
ENyakatho Nenkabazwe, izinguquko zolwandle zixazululwa ukulahlekelwa yiqhwa neqhwa lasolwandle, okwenza i-Arctic imunce ukukhanya kwelanga okwengeziwe futhi kwenza kube buthaka umehluko phakathi kwenkabazwe nezinti.
Amandla okuthola impendulo efanele aphakeme.Kuzobaluleka ngomsebenzi wesikhathi esizayo ukucacisa ukuthi kungani amamodeli ebukela phansi isignali ephawuliwe, kodwa kuzobaluleka ngokulinganayo ukuthola impendulo efanele ngezizathu ezifanele zomzimba.
Xiao, T. et al.(2022) Iziphepho ku-Southern Hemisphere ngenxa yokuma komhlaba nokujikeleza kolwandle, Izinqubo ze-National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, doi: 10.1073/pnas.2123512119
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Thola izifinyezo ezikhethiwe zazo zonke izindatshana eziyinhloko namaphepha avela ku-Carbon Brief nge-imeyili.Thola okwengeziwe nge-newsletter yethu lapha.
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